Bitcoin Hits $100K. How to Maximize Profits in this Bull Run?
The best for bitcoin is likely behind. Most gains will be made in altcoins in the next quarter.
Crypto Cycle Roadmap
A pro-crypto US President-elect who controls both Houses and appointed a pro-crypto SEC chair (Paul Atkins). A Vice-President-elect who has a big chunk of his portfolio invested in Bitcoin. Elon Musk with his DOGE department. The list of good news goes on and on, and all of this pushed BTC above $100K for the first time ever.
All these good news are in principle already priced in and Bitcoin may not have much more to run - at least based on historical data. Sure, some argue that this bull run is nothing like the previous ones. But that was also said about the recent bear market marked by the collapse of FTX and SBF, currently rotting in jail.
I used historical data since 2013 to find a pattern that could help you this cycle. It’s the one I am following for my crypto holdings.
Bitcoin Likely Flat from Here
The best performance for $BTC in this cycle is likely already behind, as bullish as all the current news (already priced in) may sound.
Based on historical data since 2013, the best quarter for BTC is Q4 by far with a median return of +55% and an average return of 85%.
From a monthly perspective, the best month on a median basis is October with +21% and on average it’s November with +41%. Interestingly, in 2024 we had returns in line with historical ones (+11% and 38% in October and November 2024), possibly slightly delayed to account for the US elections. The bad news is that December is usually flat and January is negative for Bitcoin, when it starts losing steam.
Ether to Lead the Alts in January
For ETH (which usually leads the altseason), the most interesting is yet to come. The best quarter by far is Q1 with an average performance of +92% and a median of +29%. The best month by far on a median basis is January (+32%). From an average perspective January would have been the first as well, if it was for the May 2017 outlier.
February through May are good months for ETH (not as good as January though), and then things start turning sour in June to end of year.
Most other altcoins will follow the same pattern as ETH . A few rallied early like XRP because of the SEC leadership change or DOGE because of Musk and his “DOGE” (Department of Government Efficiency) government department.
Bottom Line
The historical data is saying: sell your Bitcoin for new year, invest the proceeds in ETH and other alts. Take profits by tranche between early February to end of May.
Disclaimer: note that this is not an investment advice. Always do your own research.
Hope this helps! That’s my roadmap in crypto for this cycle.
Thank you to the investors copying my portfolio on eToro, really appreciate it. 💚
Etcaetera
P.S. please note I am currently traveling and will return mid- December. There is a bit less content but will get back soon. Thank you for your support of my independent work. 🫶
I also don't expect miracles in the Bitcoin chart in the foreseeable future. So the best strategy is to buy and hold for as long as possible.